| If $4-or-more-a-gallon gas is what we face
this summer, then it's time to find a way to handle it. Here's
one way to ease the pain: Invest in something that benefits from
high gasoline prices.
What are the best plays on expensive oil?
"I don't think that's a real hard question," said James
Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management,
which is a unit of Wells Fargo. "Oil stocks will do well
or you can play commodities and basic materials because commodities
are going up and the dollar's becoming weak."
True. Oil is the commodity that's sky high. And all the mega
oil companies are up strongly. If you've owned any of the major
integrated oil companies for a while, it's probably not all that
distressing to watch gasoline prices go up.
That group, according to the S&P 500 energy index, has just
about tripled in value in the last five years. Some are soaring
more than others. Chevron has had one-year total return of more
than 24 percent. Exxon Mobil was also doing well until last week,
when it posted a year-to-date decline of nearly 5 percent.
A few more affordable and interesting ideas in industries you
may not have considered: Bikes, railroads and cement companies.
You can follow Warren Buffett's lead. He's bought 18 percent
of Burlington Northern Santa Fe. "What you have in railroads
is a relatively efficient way to move stuff across the country,
relative to trucks when diesel prices are going up," said
Paul Larson, editor of Morningstar StockInvestor, a newsletter
from the Chicago research firm.
That's what has made rail stocks attractive to investors who
want to be "green," because trains use less energy and
cause less pollution than cars and trucks.
In addition, Larson points out that these companies have an enduring
competitive advantage: "Rights of way are very, very difficult
to achieve," Larson said. "There hasn't been a new railroad
built in God knows how many decades."
Cheaper than Burlington Northern is Canadian National Railway
Co. Like Burlington Northern, it has been trading near its 52-week
high, but its 20 percent run-up this year is smaller than Burlington
Northern's nearly 36 percent gain.
If, like South Florida money manager Jeffrey Koch at Goldstein
Schechter Koch, you think we'll all be pedaling more as gas gets
pricier, then you can go on the hunt for a good bicycle investment.
"Bicycles, motorcycles will be more in demand than they
would have been," Koch said. Not to mention helmets and bicycle
attire.
There's a Canadian consumer products company, Dorel Industries
Inc., that has hit on this niche. Most of the company's products
are ready-to-assemble cribs and other home furnishings, but Dorel
has been building its business in bicycle manufacturing. This
year, it's buying Cannondale, the high-end maker of performance
bicycles. That pads out its line, which includes the Schwinn,
GT and Mongoose brands. Dorel stock trades on the Toronto Stock
Exchange.
Analyst Airan Friedman of Accountability Research in Toronto
says bicycles are growing from about 20 percent of its business
to about one-third. And he notes that even though rising commodity
prices for metals are pressuring the makers of lower-cost bicycles,
it's easier for manufacturers to pass this increased cost along
to high-end customers. Cannondale bikes generally sell for $1,000
and up.
Investing in cement companies was an unusual idea from Morningstar's
Larson. Transportation is a huge part of the cost of cement. So
his idea is that competitors will be less willing to truck their
cement to distant buyers. Because there's less competition, the
cement companies will be able to charge more.
He recommends two stocks: Vulcan Industrial and Mining Corp.,
which recently purchased Florida Rock, a Jacksonville-based company,
and Cemex, the world's largest cement maker. Cemex is a Mexican
company that last year bought Rinker Group, an Australian firm.
Cemex has had strong gains this year, while Vulcan, which had
a huge gain in 2006, is off about 6 percent so far this year.
If you want to go out on the edge and try something really volatile,
you might consider solar power stocks.
Paul Vladem, president of Associated Investor Services Inc.,
a Fort Lauderdale firm that manages about $500 million, has considered
two, SunPower Corp. and First Solar Inc. But SunPower is down
more than 37 percent this year, while First Solar's price range,
in the last 12 months, has been from a low of around $65 to a
high of around $317. One thing you don't want to do: Make this
your only investment theme.
"It pays to be a little bit more cautious. You still need
to be committed to your long-term goals," Vladem said. "You
might start dollar cost averaging into stocks as the prices get
better."
Dollar cost averaging is the strategy of moving a fixed amount
of money into stocks on a regular schedule, much the same way
as many people make contributions to their retirement plans from
each paycheck.
Source: MCT
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