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Editor's Note
May 2000

by Njeru Waithaka

A Sobering Reminder

The stunning puff of lethal dust that almost took over the technology stocks recently was a reminder that there is no company, dot-com or not, that is immune to the vagaries of the stock market.

The puff, which manifested itself in the guise of a sharp drop in prices of technology stocks in mid-April, merely punctuated an inexorable downward slither that had reared its ugly head more than three weeks before. It struck painfully at its roots; the very core of many-an-entrepreneurs’ perception about investing in the new economy, supplanting self-assurance with uncertainty and wariness.

While the slide did not necessarily pluck the investor’s heart out of the desire to invest in dot-com stocks, it was a sobering reminder that the new economy is as much governed by the capricious whims of the stock market as is the old.

The fall, by 40 percent to 50 percent in shares of many high performers, left even the wily in the investment arena jittery and fretful. Investors and entrepreneurs will henceforth be extremely cautious when investing in dot-com stocks.

Yet there is a glimmer of hope—albeit not a cause for caroling itself—built on the premise that, unlike any other medium, the Internet is here to stay; that it will become even cheaper means of communication than it is now, and that it will be instrumental in increasing economic productivity, improving efficiency and keeping inflation at low levels.

Technology stocks performed higher than those of other sectors even after the aforementioned dot-com decline, but some driven investors might have seen an opportunity to buy rather than to sell, and we all know that some of the dot-com stocks have been overvalued by as much as 25 percent to 50 percent.

Funding for business start-ups in dot-coms faces a precarious future, but it would be imprudent to pass judgment in a case in which the market itself is the better judge. Our reader-entrepreneurs, however, should be cognizant that trust and faith have been shaken, and that greed, the animating force behind the impetuous and esoteric rush into dot-coms has, at least for now, been temporarily checked.

Although the euphoria of investment in the new economy is nothing new, we still find it difficult to learn from the past. In the 1840’s, the orgy of investments in the railways bequeathed a tedious list of bankrupt companies. In the early 1900’s, the sexy thing to do was to invest in automobiles. Between the first year of that century and 1925 there were over 3,000 start-up car manufacturers in the U.S., but today only a few remain. In the late 1970’s and the early 1980’s shares of personal computers won the day, but by 1983 they were beleaguered because of a dearth in venture capital. That scarcity was a consequence of an economic cycle that ended in tears after the collapse of the stock market in 1987.

Whether another economic trough has started or not, the market will tell. But the shake-up means that start-ups of dubious values will be swept aside, that venture capitalists will be more selective in funding start-ups, and that they will be more patient and desist from offering unripe dot-coms to the public.


Click here for January 2002 Editor's Note - A Bright Economic Horizon

Click here for November 2001 Editor's Note - Initiatives Rigged in Controversy

Click here for April 2001 Editor's Note - The Good Competition

Click here for February 2001 Editor's Note - The Perennial Debate

Click here for January 2001 Editor's Note - The Beleaguered Media

Click here for October 2000 Editor's Note - Selling Out Cheaply

Click here for September 2000 Editor's Note - A Question of Trust

Click here for July / August 2000 Editor's Note - Value In Differences

Click here for June 2000 Editor's Note - Be Wary of Numbers

Click here for May 2000 Editor's Note - A Sobering Reminder

 

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